The Churchill Downs Fall Meet opens on Sunday with a "Stars of Tomorrow" card comprised exclusively of races for two-year-olds. The feature event is the $200,000 Street Sense (G3), a 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier with a promising eight-horse field.
I believe the Street Sense will come down to a battle between #4 Mystik Bayou (9-5) and #3 Card Man (5-2), and while separating the two colts isn't easy, I'll give a slight edge to Mystik Bayou as my top choice.
Mystik Bayou, a half-brother to 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, has shown promise in two starts for Mystik Dan's trainer, Kenny McPeek. He kicked off his career on Sept. 5 in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga Race Course, finishing third behind next-out Champagne (G1) winner U. S. S. Valor and also Tap Our Way.
On Oct. 3, Mystik Bayou stretched out in distance for a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Belmont Park. Suffice to say, he took a big step forward. After rating in second place, he seized command and surged away to dominate by 4 1/4 lengths over Tap Our Way.
Mystik Bayou finished nicely at Belmont, clocking his final quarter-mile in :24.89 per the Equibase GPS result chart. He'll make his two-turn debut in the Street Sense and should handle the configuration change without issue. I'm optimistic he'll deliver another big performance in the Street Sense, even while running back on just 22 days of rest.
In the event Mystik Bayou runs below expectations, Card Man is a logical alternative. The Chad Brown trainee has compiled a racing record quite similar to Mystik Bayou.
Card Man debuted on Aug. 15 in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. He tracked the pace in third place before staying on to finish second, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by Q B Rocket, who returned to finish a game third in the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Coming home 4 1/4 lengths behind Card Man in third place was Decimation, who returned to dominate his next start at the same distance and class level by seven lengths.
When Card Man stretched out over one mile for his second start on Sept. 18, he stepped forward nicely. Favored at odds-on to win a Belmont Park maiden special weight, Card Man raced close to the pace in third place before taking over and drawing away to win by five lengths.
If there's one knock against Card Man, it's the fact he decelerated down the homestretch at Belmont, running his final quarter-mile in :25.52. I wonder if Mystik Bayou might be a little better suited to stretching out around two turns, though Card Man's pedigree (by Life Is Good out of a mare by Arrogate) suggests the Street Sense configuration is within reach.
#2 Blessed Flyer (7-2) is the third choice on the morning line after opening his career with wins in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland and the six-furlong Bashford Manor S. at Churchill Downs. But the Street Sense marks his first start back from a four-month layoff, and he's stretching out five-sixteenths of a mile in distance, so I'll aim to beat Blessed Flyer for the minor awards.
#5 Staunch (5-1) is perhaps a stronger candidate to finish in the top three. He rallied too late to win his debut sprinting six furlongs in an Ellis Park maiden special weight, but he gained 3 1/2 lengths through the final furlong and was beaten only two lengths at the wire. Then he stretched out over 7 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs and crushed a maiden special weight by four lengths. Staunch appeared to appreciate the longer distance, and stretching out over 1 1/16 miles in the Street Sense may unlock his best performance yet.
I also believe #6 Jas (6-1) has a chance to factor in his dirt debut. He's shown ability on grass, trouncing a one-mile maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs by four lengths before running second in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile S. over the same track and distance. As a half-brother to Mineshaft (G3) winner Hall of Fame, Jas has the pedigree to handle switching to dirt, so don't count him out of the mix for a top-three finish.
Selections
1st: Mystik Bayou
2nd: Card Man
3rd: Staunch
4th: Jas
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Street Sense?
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